天空之城 2006-5-29 02:47 PM
Country Forecast China
May 18th 2006 8ps.n@X
From the Economist Intelligence Unit5i1b8gd4qYu r
Source: Country Forecast
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Country Forecast China
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Sub price: US $1035.00 Single issue: US $560.00 W U&cI,l@"H c*A
Five-year political, policy and economic forecast for each country6bG+_8n)s h4h X
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Business environment rankings to compare the attractiveness of different markets
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Comparable coverage of 60 countries (27 OECD plus major emerging markets) plus regional overviews
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The influence of China's president, Hu Jintao, will continue to grow as he looks to appoint a number of allies to key government and party positions. Political reform will be discussed only tangentially, and no significant progress will be made. Indeed, tolerance of dissent is likely to decrease in 2007, ahead of the Chinese Communist Party's 17th Party Congress in that year and the Beijing Olympic Games in 2008. The government's main priority will be to achieve a more balanced pattern of economic growth, by orienting policy towards the poorer western and central provinces and the less well-off sections of the population. The government will also try to make the economy less dependent on exports and investment. However, reforms to boost consumption will prove hard to achieve.
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Political outlook#w/E4_ Z'r
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Mr Hu made a long-delayed trip to the US in April, but efforts to use the visit to build closer Sino-US relations were undermined by numerous gaffes, including one in which a female supporter of the banned Falun Gong spiritual group heckled the Chinese leader at a White House press conference.
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Economic policy outlook
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The government raised the benchmark one-year lending rate from 5.58% to 5.85% in April in order to curb a flood of credit that saw new local currency lending jump to Rmb1.3trn (US$162bn) in the first quarter of 2006, over one-half of the government's target for the full year. The measure supports other more direct administrative measures to cool investment. uQ{Q_
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Economic forecast
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The year-on-year rate of economic growth accelerated to 10.2% in the first quarter of 2005, driven by investment and faster-than-expected export expansion. The figures suggest that government efforts to cool investment are likely to have an impact later in 2006 than previously forecast. The Economist Intelligence Unit has consequently raised its growth forecast for 2006 to 9.5%, from 8.6%.
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